A Forecasting Tool for Predicting Australia’s Domestic Airline Passenger Demand Using a Genetic Algorithm

Authors

  • Panarat Srisaeng Suan Dusit University - School of Tourism and Hospitality Management - Bangkok - Thailand
  • Glenn Baxter School of Aerospace, Mechanical & Manufacturing Engineering, RMIT University,
  • Steven Richardson School of Engineering Edith Cowan University
  • Graham Wild School of Aerospace, Mechanical & Manufacturing Engineering, RMIT University,

Keywords:

Australia, Forecasting method, Genetic algorithm, Domestic airlines, Air transport.

Abstract

This study has proposed and empirically tested for the first time genetic algorithm optimization models for modelling Australia’s domestic airline passenger demand,as measured by enplaned passengers (GAPAXDE model) and revenue passenger kilometres performed (GARPKSDE model). Data was divided into training and testing datasets;74 training datasets were used to estimate the weighting factors of the genetic algorithm models and 13 out-of-sample datasets were used for testing the robustness of the genetic algorithm models. The genetic algorithm parameters used in this study comprised population size (n): 200; the generation number: 1,000; and mutation rate: 0.01. The modelling results have shown that both the quadratic GAPAXDE and GARPKSDE models are more accurate, reliable, and have greater predictive capability as compared to the linear models. The mean absolute percentage error in the out of sample testing dataset for the GAPAXDE and GARPKSDE quadratic models are 2.55 and 2.23%, respectively.

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Published

2015-11-16

Issue

Section

Original Papers