Defense Expenditure and Technological Innovation in Brazil: Evidence from a Dynamic Distributed Lag Model

Authors

  • Daniel Barcellos Silva Departamento de Ciência e Tecnologia Aerospacial – Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica – São José dos Campos/SP – Brazil. https://orcid.org/0009-0006-3836-3976
  • Sueli Sampaio Damin Custódio Departamento de Ciência e Tecnologia Aerospacial – Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica – São José dos Campos/SP – Brazil. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2344-3472
  • Gilberto Mohr Corrêa Departamento de Ciência e Tecnologia Aerospacial – Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica – São José dos Campos/SP – Brazil. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1119-7377
  • Daniel Alberto Pamplona Departamento de Ciência e Tecnologia Aerospacial – Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica – São José dos Campos/SP – Brazil. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2800-7074

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/jatm.v18.1446

Keywords:

Defense expenditures, Patent applications, Technological innovation, Research and development

Abstract

The formulation of public policies to promote innovation should be supported by empirical evidence, ensuring greater reliability in their design and implementation. The role of the State in supporting an innovation ecosystem has been widely recognized as essential for economic and social development. In this context, the present study examines whether military investments in Brazil are associated with patent production. Using annual data from 2001 to 2019, a dynamic distributed lag specification is estimated to assess whether defense expenditures are related to changes in technological innovation over time. The results indicate a positive association between government defense spending and the number of patents filed, particularly with a 1-year lag. Given the limited sample size (19 annual observations), the findings should be interpreted as exploratory evidence of a lagged relationship. Overall, the results are consistent with a positive temporal association between defense expenditure and patent activity, without implying causal inference.


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Published

2026-08-04

Issue

Vol. 18 (2026)

Section

Original Paper

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Copyright (c) 2026 Daniel Barcellos Silva, Sueli Sampaio Damin Custódio, Gilberto Mohr Corrêa, Daniel Alberto Pamplona

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